Inagural Korean GP - Wheeltracks Special!

Tommorow the lights will go green for the inagural Korean Grand Prix for Formula 1 race teams.
Mathematically, with only three races left in the 2010 season, there are five drivers who could take championship glory.

New circuits come with challenges and complaints. But this close to the end of the season it is a Formula 1 curve ball in a competive season.

Wheeltracks a previously published column in Competition Car weighs in with analysis and review for this weekend's race.

The track:
Has been driven over hundreds of times in the last two days by Formula 1 cars to create a cleaner line on one side of the track. Offline remains very dirty and will create grip issues.
Compounded to this is that the night before the race wet weather is forcast and there is a question on whether the track will be dry enough for the start of the race. The first corner is a double apex hairpin. (Turn 1 and Turn 2). Consider the problems seen at Spa over the years in first bend incidents - then add possible grip issues on relatively cold tyres and we have a recipe for every much an entertaining first lap as Japan two weeks ago.

Jensen Button in 7th place on the grid in his McLaren of the five leaders has possibly most to worry about. However Vettel in his Red Bull on pole has made very aggressive starts recently, and would be unwise to risk crashing with Mark Webber in a first lap incident.

Equally concerning are both turns 3 and 4 at the end of long straights that will possibly favor the McLarens, but are tight hairpin configurations offering overtaking opportunities.

Tyres:
Hard or Soft? Tyre wear is hard on this new track. Drivers have seen their tyres badly worn from initial testing at the track. Strategists are possibly considering starting on the harder tyre and once there is some rubber on the racing line, switching to the softer option tyre.

If there is an early race incident and the safety car is called out I would question any strategy to switch tyres before lap 15.

Reliability:
Red Bull have improved their reliability that has seen podium places from starting at the head of the grid. Webber has elected to use a new engine compared with Vettel's used engine. Will this make a difference over 55 laps?

Alonso in his Ferrari continues to quietly impove to the detriment of both McLarens.

Button and Hamilton in the McLarens have everything to loose in Korea. They need to win to keep their championship hopes alive. Both will need to drive like they have never done before and hope that Red Bull and Ferrari have problems. The McLaren has a reputation for being fast in a straight line, ideal at Monza (Button 2nd) or Silvestone (2nd and 4th) - but Korea has some slow bends.

Valencia:
The European GP in Valencia Spain 2008 was a contemporary race on a green track the top three of this race was the same as the first three on the grid. If we apply the same general scenario then tomorrow we are looking at a 1-2 for Red Bull with Ferrari third.


Sticking my neck out!
I do not beleive the Valencia model will hold in Korea tomorrow. Jenson Button's championship hopes have faded. The podium tomorrow I forsee will be:

1st Webber
2nd Vettel
3rd Hamilton




I personally hope that they do, but the odds are not in their favor.